Watching the World Go Bye

Eliot Jacobson's Collapse of Everything Blog

Climate Casino

Here are my current betting odds for catastrophic climate events to come.  I will update these odds, close completed bets and create new bets as new information becomes available.

Various other short-term wagers are posted regularly on my Twitter account, please follow me on Twitter for more wagers, look for the (new) hashtag #climatecasino .

Last update: 01-16-2024


OPEN WAGERS


Maximum Global Sea Surface Temperature above 21.40°C by May 1, 2024

This even money fake wager is on the maximum global sea surface temperature (SST) reached by the end of April, 2024. As this wager was posted, global SSTs were running about 0.40°C above 2023 levels. The 2023 peak in April was 21.05°C, hence this wager is setting a reasonable over/under of 21.40°C.

Here is a record of the Twitter betting: Twitter Link


Maximum Global Temperature Anomaly above 2.35°C by May 1, 2024.

This even money fake wager is on the maximum global 2-meter temperature anomaly hit at the height of the current El Nino. We already hit a 2.05°C anomaly twice in 2023. I’m setting the over/under max anomaly at 2.35°C, before May 1st, 2024, using Copernicus ERA5 data.

Here is a record of the Twitter betting: Twitter Link


Maximum Mauna Loa Monthly Carbon Dioxide Reading in 2024

This is a simple over/under bet on the monthly average for May, 2024 (typically the yearly maximum). The line is set at 426.80 ppm, and the data used will be NOAA’s monthly reading, published here.

The May, 2024 reading will be published typically around June 5-8. It is also possible that the maximum will be hit in April’s reading (out around May 5-8). In any event, this wager should be fully finalized by early June, 2024.

Here is a record of the Twitter betting: Twitter Link


Carbon Dioxide Rising 3.80 ppm from November, 2023 to November, 2024

Carbon dioxide tends to spike the year after an El Niño begins. There were huge spikes in 1998 and 2016, following the major El Niños of 1997 and 2015. The spike in 2016 was nearly 3.50 ppm.

This is a simple over/under even money fake bet on whether Mauna Loa carbon dioxide will rise 3.80 ppm from November 2023 to November 2024. This bet will be resolved in early December, 2024, after the data is published.

Here is a record of the Twitter betting: Twitter Link


Global Temperatures Anomaly Rising 1.5°C for the full year 2024

Given the 50% chance of the return of El Niño by late 2023, do you think the global mean surface temperature (GMST) for 2024 will break 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 IPCC baseline? This fake bet pays fake even money for a correct answer.

This bet will be resolved in early 2025, after the data is published.

Here is a record of the Twitter betting: Twitter Link


Global Temperatures Anomaly Rising 1.7°C for the full year 2024

Given the return of El Niño in 2023 and prediction for a very strong El Nino in late 2023, do you think the global mean surface temperature (GMST) for the entire year 2024 will break 1.7°C above the 1850-1900 IPCC baseline? This fake bet pays fake 10-to-1 for the over and fake 1-to-10 for the under

This bet will be resolved in early 2025, after the data is published.

Here is a record of the Twitter betting: Twitter Link


Global Temperature Anomaly Horse Race for the full year 2024

Given the ongoing El Niño, and that this year is at least 1.46°C above the IPCC 1850-1900 baseline, what do you think the global temperature anomaly for 2024 will be?

    • Below 1.50°C (pays 4-to-1)
    • 1.50°C – 1.59°C (pays 1-to-1)
    • 1.60°C – 1.75°C (pays 1-to-2)
    • 1.76°C and above (pays 3-to-1)

This bet will be resolved in early 2025, after the data is published.

Here is a record of the Twitter betting: Twitter Link


World Population on January 1, 2026

An even-money bet on the world population being over or under 8 billion on January 1, 2026.

An extinction-level wager on the world population being under 2 billion on January 1, 2026.  This wager pays 1000-to-1 (the maximum odds this casino permits). In other words, a $1 wager wins you $1000 if there are fewer than 2 billion humans on the planet on January 1, 2026.

Wagers will be settled based on the data posted here: https://www.census.gov/popclock/world


World Cup in 2026

The World Cup is scheduled to take place in North America in 2026. Many believe that civilization won’t last long enough for the next World Cup to take place. Will there be a World Cup in 2026?

Betting on “No” pays 6-to-1, your $1 fake bet will win fake $6 if no World Cup takes place in 2026.

Betting on “Yes” pays 1-to-6, your $1 fake bet will win fake $0.17 if a 2026 World Cup happens.

Wagers will be settled based on the data posted here: Twitter Link


Lake Mead in the US going Dead Pool by 2030

Lake Mead, on the border of Arizona and Nevada, supplies power and water to millions in the Southwest US.  Water levels have been decreasing year over year at a rate of about 20 feet per year.  Today the level is at about 1040 feet.  Dead pool is the water level at which water can no longer flow out of the dam, leaving millions without power and water. For Lake Mead, this level is 895 feet.

This wager is when Lake Mead will go dead pool. It is an even money bet with an over/under of the year 2030.  The “Under” bet wins if dead pool happens by December 31, 2029.  The “Over” bet wins if dead pool happens after January 1, 2031.  All wagers lose if dead pool happens in 2030.

Source for more information: https://mead.uslakes.info/level.asp


Global Temperatures Exceeding 60°C = 140°F by January 1, 2030

We are now routinely seeing world temperatures that exceed 52°C. In 2021, the high temp was 54.4°C.  As the planet heats up, new record highs should occur. This is a wager when the first WMO recognized high temperature will equal or exceed 60°C = 140°F.  This wager wins and pays even money if 60°C occurs on or before December 31, 2029.


Blue Ocean Event by January 1, 2030

Will JAXA or NSIDC data show less than 1 million square kilometers of Arctic sea-ice extent before 2030 (one of the years 2022-2029)? This very long-term wager pays even money.


Total Sea Level Rise by January 1, 2040

This is my longest-term wager.

First, there is an “over” wager that pays 2-to-1 if global sea-level rise is greater than or equal to 14 inches (355 mm) between the period January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2040.

Second, there is an “under” wager that pays 1-to-2 if global sea-level rise is less than or equal to 10 inches (254 mm) between the period January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2040.

All wagers lose in the event global sea-level rise is between 10 inches and 14 inches.

Wagers will be settled based on this (or similar) US government data:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level


Peak Global CO₂ (approx. 2040-2050)

At some point global CO₂ will peak. This will happen for one of two reasons. Either there will be an effective reduction in CO₂ emissions to the point where net-0 is reached (currently predicted to be somewhere in the range of 2050-2070), or else global industrial civilization will collapse so that very little CO₂ is being emitted by humans. Combining the efforts of humans to reduce CO₂ emissions with the demise of global industrial civilization, the climate casino is offering an over/under of global CO₂ at 450 ppm, which will likely happen somewhere in the range 2040-2050.

This is an over/under wager with an unknown timeline.  You can fake wager that CO₂ will peak over 450 ppm or under 450 ppm. Each of these pays fake even-money.  Wagers will be settled based on this (or similar) NOAA data:

https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/global.html

Here is a record of the Twitter betting: Twitter Link 


Human Population Minimum in the Decade 2050-2059

This is not a wager, but is the climate casino’s answer to the question of predictions for the future of humans on this planet. The climate casino is giving an over/under of 4 billion humans for the minimum human population reached during the decade 2050-2059.


RESOLVED WAGERS


Global Temperatures Anomaly Rising 1.3°C for the full year 2023

This bet has been resolved. The “OVER” bet is the winner. The average for 2023 will be at least 1.46°C.

  • 141 wagered on the OVER, winning $141 fake dollars.
  • 42 wagered on the UNDER, losing $42 fake dollars.
  • The climate casinos LOST $99 fake dollars.

Given the 50% chance of the return of El Niño by late 2023, do you think the global mean surface temperature (GMST) for 2023 will break 1.3°C above the 1850-1900 IPCC baseline? This fake bet pays fake even money for a correct answer.

This bet will be resolved in early 2024, after the data is published. (Resolved 12/21/2023)

Here is a record of the Twitter betting: Twitter Link


Global Temperatures Breaking the previous all time record anomaly of 1.21°C for the full year 2023

This bet has been resolved. The “YES” bet is the winner. The average for 2023 will be at least 1.46°C.

  • 160 wagered on YES winning $40 fake dollars.
  • 32 wagered on NO losing $32 fake dollars.
  • The climate casino LOST $8 fake dollars.

Given the 50% chance of the return of El Niño by late 2023 and the implied heating from the Hunga-Tonga volcanic eruption, do you think the global mean surface temperature (GMST) for 2023 will break the previous record of 1.21°C above the 1850-1900 IPCC baseline?

Given the facts on the ground, this wager has some pretty stiff odds.  The “Over 1.21°C” wager pays 1-to-4.  A $1 fake-bet will pay $0.25.  The “Under 1.21°C” wager pays 4-to-1.

This bet will be resolved in early 2024, after the data is published. (Resolved 12/21/2023)

Here is a record of Twitter betting: Twitter Link.


El Niño for the three month period Aug/Sep/Oct 2023

This bet has been resolved. The “YES!” bet is the winner. The average for the three month period Aug/Sep/Oct was 1.5°C and was officially an El Niño according to NOAA.

  • 102 wagered on YES, winning $34 fake dollars.
  • 30 wagered on NO, losing $30 fake dollars.
  • The climate casino LOST $4 fake dollars.

Here is a record of the Twitter betting: Twitter Link


Global Temperatures Exceeding 17.25°C on any day in 2023

This bet has been resolved. The “UNDER” bet is the winner. The highest global temperature in 2023 was 17.233°C set on July 6th.

  • 358 took the OVER, losing $358 fake dollars.
  • 97 took the UNDER, winning $97 fake dollars.
  • The climate casino WON $261 fake dollars.

This is an even-money wager that on some day in 2023 the global 2 meter temperature will exceed 17.25°C. The previous record is 16.924°C set in 2022.

This bet will be resolved in late 2023, after the peak temperature for the year has been reached, or any time the temperature is equal to or greater than 17.25°C.

Here is a record of the Twitter betting: Twitter Link


Antarctic sea ice maximum extent over/under 15.5 million km²

This bet has been resolved. The “OVER” bet is the winner. Antarctic sea ice extent was 15.6M km² on August 20th, according to NSIDC data.

  • 184 took the over, winning $184 fake dollars.
  • 356 took the under, losing $356 fake dollars.
  • The climate casino WON $172 fake dollars.

This is an even-money wager if the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent is over or under 15,500,000 square kilometers.

This bet will be resolved in late October, 2023, after the peak extent has been reached. The bet will be resolved using NSIDC data, available here.

Here is a record of the Twitter betting: Twitter Link


CH4 (Methane) Monthly Global Maximum in 2023 less/more than 1932.00 ppb

This bet has been resolved. The “UNDER” bet is the winner. (Methane peaked at 1924.71 ppb).

  • 25 took the under, wining $25 fake dollars.
  • 113 took the over, losing $113 fake dollars.
  • The climate casino WON $88 fake dollars.

This is an even money bet that the 2023 CH4 global maximum (usually in February of each year) will be either more than 1932.00 ppb or less than 1932.00 ppb.  The house wins all wagers if the 2023 maximum is between 1931.75 ppb and 1932.25 ppb.

Here is a record of the Twitter betting: Twitter Link 


CO₂ Monthly Maximum at Mauna Loa in 2023 less/more than 424.00 ppm

This bet has been resolved. The “OVER” bet is the winner. (May, 2023 CO2 was exactly 424.00 ppm).

  • 131 took the over, winning $131 fake dollars.
  • 39 took the under, losing $39 fake dollars.
  • The climate casino LOST $92 fake dollars.

This is an even money bet that the 2023 CO₂ Mauna Loa maximum (usually in May of each year) measured at Mauna Loa will be either more than 424.00 ppm or less than 424.00 ppm.

Here is a record of the Twitter betting: Twitter Link


Arctic Sea-Ice Maximum is a New Record Low Maximum

This bet has been resolved. The “OVER” bet is the winner.

  • 75 bet the UNDER, losing $75 fake dollars.
  • 40 bet the OVER, winning $40 fake dollars.
  • The climate casino WON $35 fake dollars. 

We are nearing the annual Arctic sea-ice maximum. Using JAXA data, the previous all-time record low sea-ice maximum happened on March 6, 2017 with an extent of 13,878,287 km². As of this wager on January 25, 2023, Arctic sea-ice extent is 13,106,264 km² and ranks 3rd lowest overall for the date.

The wager is if this year’s maximum will be lower than the record low maximum from 2017.  The wager will be resolved either when this year’s sea-ice extent exceeds 13,878,287 km² or April 1, whichever comes first.  This is an even-money over/under bet.

Here is a record of the Twitter betting: Twitter Link


Antarctic Sea-Ice Area falls below 1 million km² in February, 2023

This bet has been resolved, the “OVER” bet is the winner.

  • 159 bet the UNDER, losing $159 fake dollars.
  • 83 bet the OVER, winning $166 fake dollars.
  • The climate casino LOST $7 fake dollars.

The wager is if the annual low sea-ice area in the Antarctic will be below 1 million square kilometers in 2023.  The wager will be settled based on NSIDC data as given here.

A wager for below 1 million square kilometers pays 1-to-2.

A wager for at or above 1 million square kilometers pays 2-to-1.

Here is a record of the Twitter betting: Twitter Link


Record Low Antarctic Sea-Ice Extent Reached in 2023

This wager has been resolved. The UNDER bet is the winner.

  • 57 wagers each won $0.50 fake dollars.
  • 18 wagers each lost $1.00 fake dollars.
  • The climate casino LOST $10.50 fake dollars!

This wager is if the annual low sea-ice extent in the Antarctic will reach a new record minimum in 2023.  This minimum usually occurs around late February (which is late Summer in the Antarctic). The wager will be settled based on NSIDC data, as given here.

A wager for a new record low pays 1-to-2. If you wager on a new record all-time low and it occurs.  That is, your $1 fake wager will win $0.50.

A wager for no new record low pays 2-to-1. If you wager that a new record all-time low won’t occur and it doesn’t, your $1 fake wager will win $2.00.

Here is a record of the Twitter betting: Twitter Link


La Nina or El Nino during the three month period November 2022 – January 2023

This wager has been resolved.  La Nina is the winner. 

NOAA puts out monthly data on the ENSO cycle.  Right now they give La Nina about 5 times the likelihood of occurring as El Nino during the three month period November 2022 – January 2023.

If you bet on El Nino, you will be paid 10-to-1 if NOAA records this event for the indicated 3 months. Your $1 wager wins $10 if you bet and win on El Nino.

If you bet on La Nina, you will be paid 0.10-to-1 if NOAA records this event for the indicated 3 months. Your $1 wins $0.10 if you bet and win on La Nina.

In case of a ENSO neutral report, both wagers push and your original wager is returned.


Total Wildfire Acres Burned in the US in 2022 Set a New Record

This wager has been resolved.  The total acres burning in 2022 was 7,534,403.  The *under* wager was the winner.

The record for total acres burned by wildfires in the US in one year is 10,122,336 in the year 2020.  This is an even money bet if the total acres burned this year will be above or below the record number of 10,122,336.  Source is the National Interagency Fire Center.


JAXA Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Minimum Above or Below 4.5 million km²

This wager has been resolved.  The Arctic sea-ice minimum for 2022 occurred on September 16 at 4,523,941 km², making the “over” bet the winner.

Will JAXA give a sea-ice extent minimum for the Arctic above or below 4.5 million square kilometers this year?  The minimum typically comes in late September.  This is an over/under bet.  You can take either side.  This bet pays even money.


New Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Minimum in 2022

This wager has been resolved.  The Arctic sea-ice minimum for 2022 occurred on September 16 at 4,523,941 km². There was NOT a new Arctic sea-ice minimum.

Will JAXA or NSIDC data show a new record low Arctic sea-ice extent at any time in 2022 (typically the minimum comes in September). This wager pays 10-to-1 if you bet and win on a new record minimum, in other words, the odds are 10-to-1 against.


Blue Ocean Event in 2022

This wager has been resolved.  The Arctic sea-ice minimum for 2022 occurred on September 16 at 4,523,941 km². There was NOT a Blue Ocean Event in 2022.

Will JAXA or NSIDC data show less than 1 million square kilometers of Arctic sea-ice extent sometime in 2022?  I put the odds at about 100,000-to 1 against a BOE this year, however the maximum odds this casino will permit are 1000-to-1. In other words, $1 wins you $1000 if a BOE happens in 2022.


CO₂ in June, 2022 less than 421.00 ppm

This wager has been resolved.  The June, 2022 CO₂ reading was 420.99 ppm.

The last published monthly value for CO₂ was 420.99 ppm, announced on June 5.

Typically, the May CO₂ (as measured at Mauna Loa) is greater than the value measured for June CO₂.  In fact, only one time has May CO₂ been less than June CO₂. As of today (June 14) only one day has a reported level of CO₂ below 421.00 ppm.

This wager is a bet that June’s CO₂ will be greater than May’s CO₂ (which comes out around July 5).  The wager pays even money if June CO₂ > May CO₂, that is, June CO₂ ≥ 421.00 ppm.


CO₂ Monthly Maximum in 2022 exceeding 422 ppm

This wager has been resolved.  The May, 2022 CO₂ reading was 420.99 ppm.

The monthly maximum for CO₂ (as measured at Mauna Loa) usually occurs in the month of May each year.  NOAA will release the May, 2022 data in early June.

This wager is a bet on CO₂ exceeding 422 ppm when reported in June.  The wager pays 10-to-1 if the reported level of CO₂ is equal to or greater than 422 ppm. In other words, the odds are 10-to-1 against this happening.


CO₂ in May, 2022 less than CO₂ in April, 2022

This wager has been resolved.  The May, 2022 CO₂ reading was 420.99 ppm was substantially higher than the April, 2022 CO₂ reading of 420.23 ppm.

Typically, the May CO₂ (as measured at Mauna Loa) is greater than the value measured for April.  In fact, the last time April’s value was higher than May was in the year 2000.  With this year’s La Nina and the earlier Spring bloom, there is a good chance that May CO₂ will be less than April CO₂.

This wager is a bet that April’s CO₂ will be greater than May’s CO₂ (which comes out around June 5).  The wager pays 2-to-1 if April CO₂ > May CO₂.


These odds posted here are for entertainment and educational purposes only.  No actual wagers will be made or booked.