Climate Casino

Here are my current betting odds for catastrophic climate events to come.  I will update these odds, close completed bets and create new bets as new information becomes available.

Various other short-term wagers are posted regularly on my Twitter account, please follow me on Twitter for more wagers.

Last update: 10-01-2022


Total Wildfire Acres Burned in the US in 2022 Set a New Record

The record for total acres burned by wildfires in the US in one year is 10,122,336 in the year 2020.  This is an even money bet if the total acres burned this year will be above or below the record number of 10,122,336.  Source is the National Interagency Fire Center.


Global Temperatures Rising 1.5C before January 1, 2026

A wager if in any of the years, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 or 2026 the global average temperature will be 1.5C or higher above the 1850-1900 IPCC (or similar) baseline.  Sources include NOAA and WMO and may be subject to scaling due to shifting baselines. This is not asking if the long-term average exceeds 1.5C, just the average for a full single calendar year. This is an even money wager.


Lake Mead in the US going Dead Pool by 2030

Lake Mead, on the border of Arizona and Nevada, supplies power and water to millions in the Southwest US.  Water levels have been decreasing year over year at a rate of about 20 feet per year.  Today the level is at about 1040 feet.  Dead pool is the water level at which water can no longer flow out of the dam, leaving millions without power and water. For Lake Mead, this level is 895 feet.

This wager is when Lake Mead will go dead pool. It is an even money bet with an over/under of the year 2030.  The “Under” bet wins if dead pool happens by December 31, 2029.  The “Over” bet wins if dead pool happens after January 1, 2031.  All wagers lose if dead pool happens in 2030.

Source for more information: https://mead.uslakes.info/level.asp


Global Temperatures Exceeding 60°C = 140°F by January 1, 2030

We are now routinely seeing world temperatures that exceed 52°C. In 2021, the high temp was 54.4°C.  As the planet heats up, new record highs should occur. This is a wager when the first WMO recognized high temperature will equal or exceed 60°C = 140°F.  This wager wins and pays even money if 60°C occurs on or before December 31, 2029.


Total Sea Level Rise by January 1, 2040

This is my longest-term wager.

First, there is an “over” wager that pays 2-to-1 if global sea-level rise is greater than or equal to 14 inches (355 mm) between the period January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2040.

Second, there is an “under” wager that pays 1-to-2 if global sea-level rise is less than or equal to 10 inches (254 mm) between the period January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2040.

All wagers lose in the event global sea-level rise is between 10 inches and 14 inches.

Wagers will be settled based on this (or similar) US government data:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level


World Population on January 1, 2026

An even-money bet on the world population being over or under 8 billion on January 1, 2026.

An extinction-level wager on the world population being under 2 billion on January 1, 2026.  This wager pays 1000-to-1 (the maximum odds this casino permits). In other words, a $1 wager wins you $1000 if there are fewer than 2 billion humans on the planet on January 1, 2026.

Wagers will be settled based on the data posted here: https://www.census.gov/popclock/world


La Nina or El Nino during the three month period November 2022 – January 2023

NOAA puts out monthly data on the ENSO cycle.  Right now they give La Nina about 5 times the likelihood of occurring as El Nino during the three month period November 2022 – January 2023.

If you bet on El Nino, you will be paid 10-to-1 if NOAA records this event for the indicated 3 months. Your $1 wager wins $10 if you bet and win on El Nino.

If you bet on La Nina, you will be paid 0.10-to-1 if NOAA records this event for the indicated 3 months. Your $1 wins $0.10 if you bet and win on La Nina.

In case of a ENSO neutral report, both wagers push and your original wager is returned.


JAXA Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Minimum Above or Below 4.5 million km²

This wager has been resolved.  The Arctic sea-ice minimum for 2022 occurred on September 16 at 4,523,941 km², making the “over” bet the winner.

Will JAXA give a sea-ice extent minimum for the Arctic above or below 4.5 million square kilometers this year?  The minimum typically comes in late September.  This is an over/under bet.  You can take either side.  This bet pays even money.


New Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Minimum in 2022

This wager has been resolved.  The Arctic sea-ice minimum for 2022 occurred on September 16 at 4,523,941 km². There was NOT a new Arctic sea-ice minimum.

Will JAXA or NSIDC data show a new record low Arctic sea-ice extent at any time in 2022 (typically the minimum comes in September). This wager pays 10-to-1 if you bet and win on a new record minimum, in other words, the odds are 10-to-1 against.


Blue Ocean Event in 2022

This wager has been resolved.  The Arctic sea-ice minimum for 2022 occurred on September 16 at 4,523,941 km². There was NOT a Blue Ocean Event in 2022.

Will JAXA or NSIDC data show less than 1 million square kilometers of Arctic sea-ice extent sometime in 2022?  I put the odds at about 100,000-to 1 against a BOE this year, however the maximum odds this casino will permit are 1000-to-1. In other words, $1 wins you $1000 if a BOE happens in 2022.


Blue Ocean Event by January 1, 2030

Will JAXA or NSIDC data show less than 1 million square kilometers of Arctic sea-ice extent before 2030 (one of the years 2022-2029)? This very long-term wager pays even money.


CO₂ Maximum in 2023 less/more than 422.50 ppm

This is an even money bet that the 2023 CO₂ Mauna Loa maximum (usually in May of each year) measured at Mauna Loa will be either more than 422.50 ppm or less than 422.50 ppm.  The house wins all wagers if the 2023 maximum is between 422.48 ppm and 422.52 ppm.


CH4 (Methane) Maximum in 2023 less/more than 1928.00 ppb

This is an even money bet that the 2023 CH4 global maximum (usually in February of each year) will be either more than 1928.00 ppb or less than 1928.00 ppb.  The house wins all wagers if the 2023 maximum is between 1927.75 ppb and 1928.25 ppb.


CO₂ in June, 2022 less than 421.00 ppm

This wager has been resolved.  The June, 2022 CO₂ reading was 420.99 ppm.

The last published monthly value for CO₂ was 420.99 ppm, announced on June 5.

Typically, the May CO₂ (as measured at Mauna Loa) is greater than the value measured for June CO₂.  In fact, only one time has May CO₂ been less than June CO₂. As of today (June 14) only one day has a reported level of CO₂ below 421.00 ppm.

This wager is a bet that June’s CO₂ will be greater than May’s CO₂ (which comes out around July 5).  The wager pays even money if June CO₂ > May CO₂, that is, June CO₂ ≥ 421.00 ppm.


CO₂ Monthly Maximum in 2022 exceeding 422 ppm

This wager has been resolved.  The May, 2022 CO₂ reading was 420.99 ppm.

The monthly maximum for CO₂ (as measured at Mauna Loa) usually occurs in the month of May each year.  NOAA will release the May, 2022 data in early June.

This wager is a bet on CO₂ exceeding 422 ppm when reported in June.  The wager pays 10-to-1 if the reported level of CO₂ is equal to or greater than 422 ppm. In other words, the odds are 10-to-1 against this happening.


CO₂ in May, 2022 less than CO₂ in April, 2022

This wager has been resolved.  The May, 2022 CO₂ reading was 420.99 ppm was substantially higher than the April, 2022 CO₂ reading of 420.23 ppm.

Typically, the May CO₂ (as measured at Mauna Loa) is greater than the value measured for April.  In fact, the last time April’s value was higher than May was in the year 2000.  With this year’s La Nina and the earlier Spring bloom, there is a good chance that May CO₂ will be less than April CO₂.

This wager is a bet that April’s CO₂ will be greater than May’s CO₂ (which comes out around June 5).  The wager pays 2-to-1 if April CO₂ > May CO₂.


These odds posted here are for entertainment and educational purposes only.  No actual wagers will be made or booked.