Here are my current betting odds for catastrophic climate events to come. I will update these odds as new information becomes available.
Last update: 05-09-2022
Global Temperatures Rising 1.5C before January 1, 2026
A wager if in any of the years, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 or 2026 the global average temperature will be 1.5C or higher above the 1850-1900 IPCC (or similar) baseline. Sources include NOAA and WMO and may be subject to scaling due to shifting baselines. This is not asking if the long-term average exceeds 1.5C, just the average for a full single calendar year. This is an even money wager.
World Population on January 1, 2026
An even-money bet on the world population being over or under 8 billion on January 1, 2026.
An extinction-level wager on the world population being under 2 billion on January 1, 2026. This wager pays 1000-to-1 (the maximum odds this casino permits). In other words, a $1 wager wins you $1000 if there are fewer than 2 billion humans on the planet on January 1, 2026.
Wagers will be settled based on the data posted here: https://www.census.gov/popclock/world
La Nina or El Nino during the three month period November 2022 – January 2023
NOAA puts out monthly data on the ENSO cycle. Right now they give La Nina about 5 times the likelihood of occurring as El Nino during the three month period November 2022 – January 2023.
If you bet on El Nino, you will be paid 5-to-1 if NOAA records this event for the indicated 3 months. Your $1 wager wins $5 if you bet and win on El Nino.
If you bet on La Nina, you will be paid 0.20-to-1 if NOAA records this event for the indicated 3 months. Your $1 wins $1.20 if you bet and win on La Nina.
In case of a ENSO neutral report, both wagers push and your original wager is returned.
New Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Minimum in 2022
Will JAXA or NSIDC data show a new record low Arctic sea-ice extent at any time in 2022 (typically the minimum comes in September). This wager pays 2-to-1 if you bet and win on a new record minimum, in other words, the odds are 2-to-1 against.
Blue Ocean Event in 2022
Will JAXA or NSIDC data show less than 1 million square kilometers of Arctic sea-ice extent sometime in 2022? I put the odds at about 100,000-to 1 against a BOE this year, however the maximum odds this casino will permit are 1000-to-1. In other words, $1 wins you $1000 if a BOE happens in 2022.
Blue Ocean Event by January 1, 2030
CO₂ Monthly Maximum in 2022 exceeding 422 ppm
The monthly maximum for CO₂ (as measured at Mauna Loa) usually occurs in the month of May each year. NOAA will release the May, 2022 data in early June.
This wager is a bet on CO₂ exceeding 422 ppm when reported in June. The wager pays 10-to-1 if the reported level of CO₂ is equal to or greater than 422 ppm. In other words, the odds are 10-to-1 against this happening.
CO₂ in May, 2022 less than CO₂ in April, 2022
Typically, the May CO₂ (as measured at Mauna Loa) is greater than the value measured for April. In fact, the last time April’s value was higher than May was in the year 2000. With this year’s La Nina and the earlier Spring bloom, there is a good chance that May CO₂ will be less than April CO₂.
This wager is a bet that April’s CO₂ will be greater than May’s CO₂ (which comes out around June 5). The wager pays 2-to-1 if April CO₂ > May CO₂.
These odds posted here are for entertainment and educational purposes only. No actual wagers will be made or booked.