I agree. What else can I say.
My Appearance on Environmental Coffeehouse: Sept. 6, 2024
The first part of this conversation focuses on CO2-equivalent and the challenges of getting this number right. tl;dw: CO2e is somewhere in the range 530 – 540ppm.
The second part is wide ranging and includes monthly global temperatures, heatwaves, 1.5°C, blue ocean event, AMOC, Antarctic and global sea-ice, and the the collapse of global industrial civilization.
Hi, Eliot. Thank you for this discussion. My big takeaway is 1.5 by 2027ish, 2.0 by 2035, and 2.5 by 2045. My question is based on another conversation (minute 58:40 – 1:02:00 or thereabouts https://youtu.be/UgF2TwJ5d6w?si=Q3XPRkRekghs6DxN) with physicist Stefan Rahmstorf, a climate scientist at Potsdam Institute in which he says that the notion that there’s baked-in temperature increases over the next decades based on the ghg’s already emitted is incorrect and says rather that if we stopped burning ff’s today then there would be no further warming. I agree with you (and him) that we aren’t going to do that, but since it sounded like your predictions are tied to this notion I wanted to alert you that an underlying assumption in your work may be faulty. Thx.
Complete cessation of burning fossil fuels is on the far side of Net Zero, and we’re making very little progress to NetZero. Many climate scientists make the same point about stopping fossil fuels, but it is not meaningful in anything more than an abstract universe of scientific truth.