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Polar Wagers of Doom for 2025
December 24, 2024

Polar Wagers of Doom for 2025

Greetings to all those who watch the unfolding climate events and wish there was some way you could fake-monitize your intuition. In the past, the Climate Casino has been posting all of their fake wagers to Twitter. It’s time to make a change, and the Climate Casino has decided to separate the fake-wagers from that dubious portal of doom.

This post lets you make three wagers on polar sea-ice extent. You can wager on the minimum sea-ice extent in 2025 in the Arctic, Antarctic, and globally. The wagers will be reconciled using JAXA data after the event happens.

This is your first chance to fake-win big in 2025. But please, fake-bet responsibly!

The last day to make your Polar Wagers of Doom is January 15, 2025
Wager #1 -- The OVER/UNDER for the Arctic sea-ice minimum (usually in September) is set at 3,100,000 square kilometers. The previous record low was 3,177,000 square kilometers, set on September 16, 2012.
Wager #2 -- The OVER/UNDER for the Antarctic sea-ice minimum (usually in February) is set at 1,990,000 square kilometers. The record low is 1,950,000 million square kilometers, set on February 17, 2023.
Wager #3 -- The OVER/UNDER for the Global sea-ice minimum (usually in February) is set at 15,400,000 square kilometers. The previous record low was 15,503,000 square kilometers, set on February 11, 2023.
23 votes · 67 answers
Wagers of DoomResults
Eliot Jacobson, Ph.D.
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  3. Thanks for all of the bets and the links to the data! I just read this post: https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/the-coming-population-collapse by Ugo…

  4. Ya, that says it all. My doom levels went up in 2024. COP was even worse than expected. The FF…

  5. In the very near future, self-aware artificial intelligence agents will probably do exactly what you’re suggesting, as soon as they…

  6. i have friends who still believe that the science behind climate change research is a hoax. we are fucked. as…

  7. Both books would have been better off in the landfill or recycled.

  8. I agree, but there is nothing objective about any of this except to say that, objectively, humans need a viable…