Wagers of Doom: 2025 Edition

To lead off this post I will share an email I received from Sam Mitchell of Collapse Chronicles. Sam wrote to me mid-December, saying he would not be doing our annual January prediction show for this coming year. Instead, Sam asked that I share his one singular prediction for 2025. Here it is:

“The only prediction you need to know on Jan. 1, 2025, is that you, everyone you know, humanity, our fellow Earthlings, and the planet will be a lot more fucked on Jan. 1, 2026 than today, just as you (as I previously predicted) are a lot more fucked today than you were on Jan. 1, 2024.”

I agree 100% with this. Sam said everything that needs saying with his prediction. There are simply too many super obvious things we could predict for 2025. The planet and most of the living things on it will be a lot more f&%ked by the end of 2025.

Here are a few of the obvious things that will be more f&%ked by the end of 2025:

• The heatwaves will be worse, the floods, fires, drought, hurricanes and other extreme weather events will be worse.
• CO₂, methane and other greenhouse gasses will rise faster than expected.
• The loss of coral and the die-off of the Amazon will be worse than expected.
• Global temperatures will be hotter than expected, except in those places where they are much colder than expected.
• Melting of glaciers and polar ice will be greater than expected.
• The spread of diseases like dengue and H5N1 will be much worse than expected.
• The extinction of species and loss of biodiversity will be much worse than expected.
• Multi simultaneous breadbasket crop failures will be much worse than expected, due to storms, floods, drought, heat and loss of pollinators.

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And to top it off, the imminent collapse of the US politically and the impact of the rise of domestic fascism on a host of issues leads to a number of obvious predictions for things that will be more f&%ked in 2025, including:

• The economy, trade wars, tarrifs, and markets.
• Immigration, civil war and border conflicts.
• Nuclear proliferation and the threat of nuclear war.
• The loss of critical data sources, including NOAA and NASA climate data.
• The regional availability of food and water.

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So, what is there really to predict? As Sam said, everything will be a lot more f&%ked by the end of 2025. But exactly how f&%ked will it get?

Given that this is the Climate Casino, rather than making predictions, it’s more appropriate for me to set some betting lines, so-called “Wagers of Doom.” I’m setting the lines so that you can take either side of these wagers and have equal chances. These are 50/50 Over/Under lines, valid through the end of January, 2025.

Let me say a few things about betting patterns I have noticed.

First, doomers usually make the error of thinking things are going to be much worse much faster than the lines I set. They tend to over-bet on the doom side. Yes, things are bad and are going to get much worse much faster than expected, but we’re a long ways away from a blue ocean event, AMOC collapse, massive death from lethal wet-bulb temperatures, the meltdown of 100’s of nuclear power plants and human extinction.

Likewise, climate scientists and those fueled by hope tend to be much more cautious, and over-bet on the less extreme side. Call it optimism bias, peer pressure or hopium, but in public, at least, the bets climate scientists make are generally conservative.

Of course, deniers don’t give a f&%k, but they are going to lose anyway.

As of today, these are 50/50 wagers. But yes, in a month or two they could be out of date, with new information coming in. So, bet early and bet often and watch for these fake-bets to appear on a social media site near you over the next few weeks!

Here are my 2025 Wagers of Doom, valid through January 31, 2025:

1. The OVER/UNDER for the Arctic sea-ice minimum (usually in September) is set at 3,100,000 square kilometers. The previous record low was 3,177,000 square kilometers, set on September 16, 2012. The UNDER would represent a new low for the Arctic.
2. The OVER/UNDER for the Global sea-ice minimum (usually in February) is set at 15,400,000 square kilometers.  The previous record low was 15,503,000 square kilometers, set on February 11, 2023. The UNDER would represent a new low for Global sea ice extent.
3. The OVER/UNDER for peak monthly CO₂, as measured at Mauna Loa, is 430.70 ppm. The peak usually occurs in April or May, and is available in the following month’s data release from NOAA. Who wants to purchase 430.org and start a non-profit?
4. The OVER/UNDER for CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels is 37.5 billion tonnes. The OVER would be yet another new record high for anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, beating the previous record of 37.4 billion tonnes in 2024. In other words — we’re nearing peak emissions, but we aren’t quite ther eyet.
5. The OVER/UNDER for the global mean surface temperature anomaly is 1.52°C. This is cooler than 2024, but much higher than my previous OVER/UNDER for 2025 of 1.44°C. The OVER would imply that the Paris Limit of 1.5°C is effectively history.
6. The OVER/UNDER for the peak global mean surface temperature is 17.20°C. Note: the previous record is 17.15°C on July 23, 2024. I’d weight the UNDER heavily here, as ENSO conditions will probably keep extremes on the low end.
7. The OVER/UNDER for peak monthly methane is 1940.50 ppb. This refers to the data released by NOAA in March or April of 2025. The last 2 years, the rate of methane growth has been slowing. I am expecting methane growth to pick up again. I’d say the OVER is the favorite here.
8. The OVER/UNDER for the highest North Atlantic sea surface temperatures is 25.40°C.  The previous record is 25.37°C on September 1, 2023. The North Atlantic isn’t impacted directly by El Niño, and the observed decline in cloud cover will continue to overheat the Atlantic. The OVER is a slight favorite here.
9. The OVER/UNDER on the highest temperature in the UK this coming Summer is 40°C (104°F). Yes. That again! This is brought to you by the overheated Atlantic.
10. The OVER/UNDER for category 5 hurricanes is 4.5 hurricanes. (OVER = 5 or more, UNDER = 4 or less).  Without an El Niño creating shear, conditions should be very favorable for a record season. It will all come down to Saharan dust.
11. The OVER/UNDER for human deaths from bird flu (H5N1) in the US is 8. If the OVER happens, it will be VERY bad news. It’s very bad news anyway!
12. The OVER/UNDER on the number of humans on this planet on December 31 2025 will be 8,265,000,000. That’s eight billion, two hundred and sixty-five million insects crawling on the planet’s face. Humans are not going extinct any time soon. You can bet on it!

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Just a quick note on data sources. For sea ice exent, I am using JAXA data. For sea surface temperatures, I am using Copernicus data. For global surface temperatures, I am using Copernicus data. For greenhouse gasses, I am using NOAA data. For fossil fuel emissions, I am using NASA data. For deaths from H5N1, I will use CDC data. For population, I will use the World Population Clock.

Except for the possibility of a massive solar flare, pandemic, nuclear conflagration, AI vandalism, magnetic pole shift or asteroid strike causing human civilization to collapse sooner rather than later, I’ll be doing this again in 2026.

May your 2025 not be as f&%ked as your 2024.

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“And crawling on the planet’s face,
some insects called the human race.
Lost in time, and lost in space.
And meaning.”

― Richard O’Brien, The Rocky Horror Picture Show