I was recently asked an intriguing question on my YouTube Channel: “Do you (and if so when) think a complete societal collapse will come from climate change?” My first answer was maybe a bit too simplistic. I said, yes — but not all at once. Some societies are already collapsing due to the effects of climate change, e.g., on Madagascar. […]
Assuming an atmospheric half-life of 120 years for CO2 (there is no solid estimate, but most put it over 100 years) and 110 months for CH4 (as stated in IPCC AR5, 2013), it is natural to ask how much CO2 and CH4 must be emitted into the atmosphere each year to account for both this exponential decay and the current […]
The two greenhouse gasses (GHG) that are the primary drivers of climate change are carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). This post is about Methane, which is 84 times as powerful a GHG as CO2. If you are interested in CO2, I refer you to this page on NOAA’s website which does a great job explaining the growth of CO2 […]
With everything going on — floods, hurricanes, fires, droughts, heat waves and a pandemic, we forget that California, in particular, is also having a historic water emergency that stands to become all-out water anarchy if we have another dry La Nina winter, as is expected by the latest NOAA ENSO predictions.
One of the biggest surprises of the last 20 years to those studying climate change has been the realization that there is a counter-effect of cooling going on that is also caused by anthropogenic pollution. In simple terms, stuff we burn in industrial processes, agriculture and transportation emits lots of aerosolized crap into the atmosphere that blocks or reflects […]
The daily measuring of atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa began in 1958. The first documented level was 315.70 parts per million (ppm) in March, 1958. The maximum that year was 317.51 ppm in May. The yearly maximum this last May was 419.13 ppm, a rise of 32.8% from the 1958 maximum. During those 63 years, the awareness of the effects […]
We face the great climate change crises convergence, when the direct impacts of climate change no longer are single items to be listed, researched and debated. Rather, these expanding impacts now routinely combine into a multi-headed hydra creating localized desolation with global consequences. What follows below is a list some of the consequences of climate change. This list gives many […]
I was beyond surprised when Michael Mann blocked me on Twitter yesterday. Mann is the ubiquitous voice of climate change in the media, director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University and pusher of the “hockey stick” analogy for the industrial-age rise of anthropogenic CO2. I have been fascinated by weather my whole life. As a child […]
This passage from the brilliant essay Facing Extinction by Catherine Ingram is the one that really gets to me. Ingram underscores the challenges of being around others who are in denial and the way we must each individually come to terms with this divide. But she also gives us a way out, a way to be in the world however […]
While the focus is on fossil fuels and CO2, the creeping danger is methane, which is 84x as powerful a greenhouse gas. A side-by-side comparison of the growth of these gases 1983-2021 leaves no doubt the trouble this planet faces in the near-term:
I just discovered a draft of the IPCC AR6 WG1 introduction that hasn’t been previously seen. For the first time, here it is for all to see.
Thanks! Shame on NOAA for not making that clear.
My first article addresses this question. See "the third mistake" and it's fix.
This is confusing to me. Pre-industrial the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere was about 280ppm. But there was significant…
Complete cessation of burning fossil fuels is on the far side of Net Zero, and we're making very little progress…
Hi, Eliot. Thank you for this discussion. My big takeaway is 1.5 by 2027ish, 2.0 by 2035, and 2.5 by…
Thanks for this. The big nugget of clarity I got from this was the example of what reducing emissions 7%…
I think that must be someone else. My writing about climate issues is all on this site.
Fair question. Here are all the greenhouse gases with historical concentrations and projected out until 2500. https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/3571/2020/